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MoateyFundamentals
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The 20-Year Backtest

A rating system is only as credible as its track record.

From 2004 through 2024, a portfolio that bought every "Excellent" and "Good"-rated MOATEY stock at the start of each quarter — and sold when the rating dropped below "Fair" — would have compounded at 19.01% gross of fees, versus 12.11% for the MSCI World benchmark over the same period.

MOATEY gross CAGR

19.01%

Benchmark CAGR (MSCI World)

12.11%

Annualised alpha

+6.90 pp

Backtest window

2004-2024

Methodology

  • Universe. All constituents of the MSCI World index at the start of each quarter, restated for index changes.
  • Entry. Equal-weighted, rebalanced quarterly. A name enters the portfolio if its MOATEY rating that quarter is "Good" or "Excellent".
  • Exit. Sold at the next quarterly rebalance if the rating falls to "Fair" or below.
  • Costs. Gross of trading costs and taxes. Net returns will be lower depending on your broker and jurisdiction.

What this is not

A backtest is evidence, not a promise. Markets change. Factor premia compress. The exact conditions that drove returns from 2004-2024 will not repeat identically. Use this as a calibration of the methodology — not a forecast.

We also openly publish the rating history of every name in our universe. You can audit how a stock's rating moved over time on its detail page — no cherry-picking.

Risk & drawdown

Quality compounders are not crash-proof. The MOATEY portfolio drew down roughly 32% during the 2008 financial crisis and 24% during the 2022 rate-shock — broadly in line with the benchmark, recovering faster in both cases. If a 30% peak-to-trough loss would force you to sell, no rating system can rescue you. Position sizing and patience do the rest of the work.